Wage expectations are important determinants for individual schooling decisions. However, research on individual expectations of students is scarce. The paper presents the Swiss results of a survey that was conducted in 10 European countries. Its main findings are that point estimates of wages after graduation are close to actual wages, whereas the expectations of the wage gain in the first ten years of professional experience exceed the actual wage gains significantly. While most of the deviation of individual expectations from actual wages can not be explained, we find that rates of return to education that are calculated on the base of individual wage and cost expectations as well as individual time preferences can be explained partially by the seniority of students, the self-perception of their academic performance and their subjective job perspectives. The high degree of unexplained heterogeneity in individual expectations and the differences between groups of students show the necessity to analyse the question further with bigger and more representative samples.
Der demografische Wandel in den Industrieländern wird die Bildungsausgaben potenziell zweifach beeinflussen. Einerseits wird der Rückgang der Schülerzahlen zu einer Entlastung der Bildungsausgaben führen. Diese würde allerdings wegen der traditionell inelastischen Anpassung der Bildungsinfrastruktur an Schwankungen in den Schülerzahlen nur gering ausfallen. Andererseits ist aus der theoretisch-empirischen Literatur bekannt, dass das gleichzeitige Ansteigen des Anteils älterer Bürger die Ausgabenbereitschaft der Politik für Bildung negativ beeinflussen könnte. Der vorliegende Aufsatz fasst Ergebnisse aus zwei verschiedenen empirischen Studien in der Schweiz zusammen. Die erste zeigt, dass die Bildungsausgaben für den obligatorischen Schulbereich schon in der Vergangenheit negativ und signifikant auf ein Wachstum der älteren Bevölkerung reagiert haben. Die zweite Untersuchung zeigt, dass wenn man altersabhängige Präferenzen und Motive untersucht, davon auszugehen ist, dass der Zusammenhang von Altersstrukturen in einem Land und den Bildungsausgaben als kausal zu deuten ist und nicht lediglich ein statistisches Artefakt darstellt. Die Untersuchungen zeigen, dass der Kampf der Generationen um öffentliche Mittel der demografische Faktor sein wird, welcher die Bildungsbudgets am stärksten unter Druck setzen wird. (DIPF/Orig.) ; In the industrial countries, the demographic changes will potentially have a two-fold influence on educational expenditures. On the one hand, the decrease in the number of students will lead to a reduction in educational costs. This would, however, not amount to much because, traditionally, the adjustment of the educational infrastructure to the fluctuation in the number of students is rather inflexible. On the other hand, we do know from theoretical-empirical literature that the simultaneous increase in the proportion of older citizens may have a negative influence on the expenditure policy in the educational sector. The present article summarizes the results of two empirical studies carried out in Switzerland. The first of these shows that, even in the past, educational expenditures within the obligatory educational sector have reacted negatively and significantly to a growth of the older population. The second study indicates that, on the basis of an analysis of age related preferences and motives, the relation between age structures within a specific country and the educational expenditures has to be considered a causal relation and not a mere artefact of statistics. Both studies show that the different generations fight for public funds will be that demographic factor which will exert the strongest pressure on the educational budgets. (DIPF/Orig.)
Die Analyse bildungspolitischer Fragestellungen hat in den letzten Jahrzehnten immer deutlicher gezeigt, dass es zur Beantwortung der meisten Fragen zunehmend Kenntnisse der individuellen Bildungsbiographien und meist auch der daran anschliessenden Erwerbsbiographien bedarf. Die Beschränkung auf einzelne Abschnitte oder Sequenzen einer Bildungslaufbahn reicht in der Regel nicht aus, um kausale Zusammenhänge zu belegen oder nur schon um einzelne Aspekte im Bildungswesen richtig bewerten zu können. Fragestellungen oder Probleme, wie die Beteiligungsquote an nachobligatorischer Ausbildung, Jugendarbeitslosigkeit oder die Beteiligung an Weiterbildung und Erwachsenenbildung können nur richtig verstanden werden, wenn man diese in den Werdegang einer Person einbettet und vor diesem Hintergrund analysiert. (DIPF/Orig.)
Gemessen an den zahlreichen Forschungsarbeiten auf dem Gebiet der Bildungsökonomie der letzten zehn Jahre befindet sich diese wissenschaftliche Disziplin an der Schnittstelle von Ökonomie und Erziehungswissenschaften in einem zweiten Frühling. Der vorliegende Artikel versucht, ausgewählte Themen und Erkenntnisse der jüngsten bildungsökonomischen Forschung zusammenzufassen und zu interpretieren. Die ausgewählten Themen werden dabei zwei Blöcken zugeordnet: erstens demjenigen der eher humankapitaltheorieorientierten Forschungsfragen und zweitens demjenigen der klassisch bildungsökonomischen Fragen nach der Finanzierung von Bildung und der Produktion von Bildung im Bildungswesen. Der Artikel kommt zum Schluss, dass trotz der beeindruckenden Fülle von aktuellen Forschungsarbeiten die meisten Fragen offen oder kontrovers geblieben sind. Weitere Investitionen, insbesondere eine verbesserte Verankerung der Bildungsökonomie im Wissenschaftsbetrieb sind notwendig, damit die Bildungsökonomie den gestiegenen Erwartungen in Bildungspolitik und -verwaltung auch gerecht werden kann. (DIPF/Orig.) ; Judging by the many studies done in the field concerning the economics of education over the last ten years, this discipline, which represents the interface between economics and education, is enjoying a Renaissance. This article attempts to summarize and interpret some of the themes and findings of the most recent research done in the field. The themes selected have been organized into two sections: one, research questions that have more of a human capital orientation, and two, more traditional economics of education questions that focus on the financing of education and its production in the educational system. The article concludes that despite the impressive amount of research currently being conducted, most questions remain unanswered or subject to dispute. More investment, and in particular a better mooring of the economics of education in the scientific community are thus needed if the economics of education is to fulfill the growing expectations of those involved in shaping educational policies and administering educational systems. (DIPF/Orig.)
Wage expectations can play a significant role in a variety of economic areas. This study analyses the wage expectations of students who are on the verge of making a decision concerning their educational path or who have already reached such a decision. Since each student in our study has been asked to discuss expectations in relation to various educational scenarios, this data can be used to check certain human capital theory assumptions. It is possible to ascertain the wage effects which students expect from certain educational decisions. Moreover it is possible to assess the expected rates of return on education without asking the students directly. The results of this study make it clear that both in the USA and in Switzerland the wage expectations of students do not differ significantly from the cross‐sectional labor market data, despite considerable heterogeneity in some cases.
AbstractWe empirically test the hypothesis that adolescents' occupational aspirations are more gender‐stereotypical if they live in a region where the societal norm towards gender equality is weaker. For our analysis, we combine rich survey data describing a sample of 1,434 Swiss adolescents who attended 8th grade in 2013 with municipal voting results dealing with gender equality and policy. We find that occupational aspirations predominantly follow gender stereotypes and that adolescents living in municipalities with a stronger norm towards gender equality are significantly less likely to aspire for a gender‐stereotypical occupation, even after controlling for individual‐level controls. At the same time, we also find that the association is surprisingly weak – in the sense that adolescents tend to aspire for gender‐stereotypical occupations even in the most gender‐progressive municipalities. Moreover, a more detailed analysis shows that the association mainly reflects the intergenerational transmission of occupations from parents to their children and/or regional differences in the prevailing occupational structure. We discuss the implications of these findings and several mechanisms that are consistent with the evidence from our analysis.
Even though the recession in Switzerland triggered by COVID-19 ultimately remained without consequences for the apprenticeship market, significantly fewer apprenticeship contracts had been signed in the months of the first shutdown in 2020 than in the same months of the previous year. Using daily search queries on the national administrative platform for apprenticeship vacancies from February 2020 until April 2021 as a proxy for the supply of potential apprentices, we find a temporal pattern that coincides perfectly with the development of signed apprenticeship contracts. Furthermore, the analyses show that the initially very strong relationship between the intensity of the politically imposed restrictions to fight the COVID-19 pandemic and the daily search queries diminished over time, leading to a search intensity in March 2021 that was back at pre-pandemic level.
